2024 NFL First Round Mock Draft
This is a prediction of how Eric Gutin thinks the NFL Draft will play out —. not what Eric would do with each of these picks. Eric includes trades and analysis for each pick in the 1st Round
Written by Eric Gutin
2024 1st Round NFL Mock Draft
Pick No. 1 Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Not much needs to be said about this pick. Caleb Williams is a generational prospect and is a lock to go to the Bears with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. No need to waste too much time here.
Pick No. 2 Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
This pick is between quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. Daniels’ ability to push the ball down the field and do damage with his feet makes him a great fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. With Dan Quinn, an experienced coach in the building, the Commanders likely want an instant impact from their selection here. Thus, Daniels slightly more pro-ready than Maye, is the selection. Maye has more upside, but the Commanders don’t want to wait around, as they grab the Heisman winner with the No. 2 pick.
Pick No. 3 New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Despite a ton of buzz about a possible trade down, New England stays put at No. 3 and takes its QB of the future. I think the Patriots are happy with either Daniels or Maye with this pick. Teams like the Vikings and Giants may send an offer for this pick, but I think New England will turn them down to take their guy in Maye.
Pick No. 4 Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
After losing Marquise Brown to free agency, wideout is a pressing need for the Cardinals. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the type of prospect you don’t see often. He has the frame, explosiveness, route running and hands to be a superstar at the next level. The Cardinals leave the phone ringing with trade offers and get the best receiver in the draft.
Pick No. 5 Minnesota Vikings (Trade with Los Angeles Chargers)
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I have the Vikings receiving the No. 5 pick in exchange for the No. 11, 23 and 129 picks. There are reports that the Vikings are hesitant to give up the No. 23 pick in a trade. But in my opinion, Minnesota would have to part ways with No. 11 and 23 at minimum to trade up into the top five. Beyond trade compensation, the Vikings are a candidate to trade up for a QB. Staying put at No. 11 and hoping McCarthy falls is a risk I don’t believe Minnesota will take. From the Chargers’ perspective, Jim Harbaugh positions his former quarterback well in Minnesota while the Chargers acquired two first-rounders, allowing them to draft an offensive linemen and wide receiver — two pivotal positions of need.
Pick No. 6 New York Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
With the No. 6 pick the Giants draft an explosive playmaker in Nabers. I don’t buy the McCarthy to Giants buzz. If they were to trade up, I think it would be for Maye. In this scenario though, they stay put and get Nabers. Nabers is a guy who can make plays lining up in the slot and the outside. His ability to make game-breaking plays after the catch will hopefully help a Giants offense in desperate need of a dynamic playmaker.
Pick No. 7 Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
I have Joe Alt falling to the Titans at No. 7. Tennessee will gladly take Alt who fills a need for them at tackle. The Titans can be a sneaky candidate to trade down, but with Alt on the board, they wouldn’t pass him up. This pick would be a steal for the Titans, as tackles like Alt typically go top five or even top three. I can see the Chargers staying put and taking Alt, but as long as he is here, the Titans will happily draft the elite tackle.
Pick No. 8 Atlanta Falcons
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
With the No. 8 pick, the Falcons again surprise the media by taking Byron Murphy II to bolster their d-line. Most people think that Dallas Turner is the obvious pick here. I disagree as the league is much higher on Murphy than the media. There are rumblings that Murphy is the first defender on many teams' boards, which I think includes Atlanta. Byron Murphy II and Grady Jarrett would form a top interior d-line duo instantly. I heavily considered Quinyon Mitchell or Dallas Turner here, but Murphy will be the surprise pick in the top 10.
Pick No. 9 Indianapolis Colts (Trade with Chicago Bears)
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
I have the Colts giving up the No. 15, 82 and 151 picks to get Rome Odunze at No. 9. As AFC South teams like the Titans and Texans surround their young quarterbacks with talent, the Colts decide to get aggressive to do the same for Anthony Richardson. The Bears could take Rome for themselves, but with only four draft picks at their disposal, they trade down six spots for more picks. Odunze is the prototypical star outside receiver, as his elite ball tracking, downfield explosiveness and mentality provide the Colts' offense with an elite receiver to pair with Michael Pittman Jr.
Pick No. 10 New York Jets
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
At pick No. 10, The New York Jets Jets add a generational prospect in Brock Bowers. Bowers is an elite threat and a mismatch nightmare. His ability to make plays after the catch sets him apart from the group. He would be a perfect safety valve for Aaron Rodgers lining up with his hand in the dirt or out of the slot. The Jets need a tackle, but Bowers will be too enticing to pass up.
Pick No. 11 Los Angeles Chargers (via Vikings)
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Chargers trade back and still get a perfect tackle for their system at No. 11. Latham is a physically imposing blocker, a trait Harbaugh greatly values. His bulldozing ability will be perfect for the running game that Harbaugh hopes to implement into this offense. Latham and Rashawn Slater will form an elite tackle duo for years to come in Los Angeles.
Pick No. 12 Philadelphia Eagles (Trade with Denver Broncos)
Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
The Eagles will receive the No. 12th pick in exchange for the No. 22, 50 and 161 picks. Philadelphia has made a name for itself as a team that will do what it takes to get their guy on draft day. Having traded away Haason Reddick, it would love to add another edge rusher. With Turner slipping through, the Eagles get aggressive and trade up. The Broncos will likely accept this offer, as Sean Payton tries to rebuild their roster with limited picks.
Pick No. 13 Las Vegas Raiders
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
At No. 13, the Raiders address their leaky offensive front with Taliese Fuaga. Fuaga provides versatility along the O-line that Las Vegas needs considering their holes across the line. Fuaga has great footwork and should be a franchise cornerstone for the franchise.
Pick No. 14 New Orleans Saints
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Olu Fashanu will be the pick for the Saints at No. 14. I can see Olu going beforehand, but the Saints will gladly take Fuaga — who I believe is their true target. Though with Fuaga off the board, they will take Fashanu who is extremely raw but has high upside. He has freakish size and length, but he can use some work with his footwork. Nonetheless, Fashanu had great production in the Big Ten full of stud pass rushers. The Saints will grab the upside tackle in the first.
Pick No. 15 Chicago Bears (via Colts)
Jared Verse, Edge, FSU
After trading back, the Bears grab a pass rusher to pair with Montez Sweat. Verse is a high-motor player who possesses serious strength off the edge. He can work on his get-off, but has solid pass-rush moves and great production against the run. He should seamlessly fit into Matt Eberflus’s defense.
Pick No. 16 Seattle Seahawks
Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Fautanu lands with his former offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in Seattle. Fautanu is an extremely versatile lineman who can play tackle and guard at a high level. This is one of my favorite fits in the whole draft. If he is on the board, Seattle shouldn’t think twice.
Pick No. 17 Jacksonville Jaguars
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Jacksonville gets potentially the best corner in the draft at No. 17. With the elite receivers in the AFC South, the Jags are thrilled to take the best coverage corner in this draft. I can see them going with Terrion Arnold here, but I think they give Mitchell the nod due to his upside and pure coverage ability.
Pick No. 18. Cincinnati Bengals
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Bengals get an extremely versatile defensive back at No. 18. Arnold can play inside and out in the back end of the defense. The Bengals’ secondary is solid but improves drastically with a player like Arnold. Cincinnati won’t hesitate if Arnold falls to them at 18.
Pick No. 19 Los Angeles Rams
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
There are numerous defensive players that slipped up to this point, but the offensive-minded Sean McVay finally has a first round pick. Although it may not be the best value pick on the board, I have them taking Guyton here. Guyton is a bit of a project but can play both tackle spots and will protect Stafford well as he grows.
Pick No. 20 Pittsburgh Steelers
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
I was stuck between Graham Barton and Brian Thomas Jr. here, but I believe the Steelers will refuse to pass up on getting a talent of Thomas Jr.'s caliber at No. 20. He has elite athleticism and upside as high as anyone at his position.
Pick No. 21 Miami Dolphins
Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
At No. 21 the Dolphins find a perfect replacement for Christian Wilkins, who they lost to free agency. Newton will provide Miami with a blend of size and speed that is hard to come by at the interior D-line spot. The Dolphins will beef up their defensive front with the balanced Newton manning the middle.
Pick No. 22 Denver Broncos (via Eagles)
Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Denver trades back and still lands an extremely productive pass rusher at No. 22. Latu always seemed to make a huge play when it mattered most in his time at the college level. The reason I have him falling so far is because of his risks. Latu was forced to medically retire in 2021 after a serious neck injury he sustained with the Washington Huskies. Still, he came back and lit it up at UCLA after his injury. Nonetheless, the injury is a concern but he is too talented for the Broncos to pass up.
Pick No. 23 Los Angeles Chargers (via Vikings)
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
After accumulating the No. 11 and 23 picks, the Chargers can address the wide receiver position with Mitchell at No. 23. Adonai is a lengthy receiver with crazy speed. But above the traits, he ran an NFL route tree at Texas, an underrated aspect when evaluating college receivers. His ability to run numerous routes and his athleticism should make him a premium target for Justin Herbert.
Pick No. 24 Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
The Cowboys replace Tyron Smith with Patrick Paul at No. 24. I thought about a trade-down scenario for the Cowboys, where they would still take Paul early second or late first, but I think they stay put and take their guy. The Cowboys often take offensive and defensive linemen earlier than people expect. This case is no different, as they draft a great pass protector in Paul and take the media criticism on the chin.
Pick No. 25 Green Bay Packers
Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
Cooper Dejean is a polarizing defensive back; many believe he should be moved to safety or nickel rather than outside corner. Regardless of position, the Packers will take the help in the secondary to pair alongside Jaire Alexander. Dejean is a pure playmaker and will make special plays as a returner if need be. The Packers get a pure football player at No. 25.
Pick No. 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Barton is the most versatile lineman in the whole class. He can play center, guard and tackle at a very high level. In the Bucs’ case, they would likely use his services in the interior after their star center, Ryan Jesnon, suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Pick No. 27 Arizona Cardinals
Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
The Cardinals use the No. 27 pick to solidify their defensive front with Darius Robinson. Robinson has been flying up boards of late and he lands in the top 20. The Cardinals need help on their defensive line badly, and here they get a guy who can get pressure from the interior and the edge.
Pick No. 28 Buffalo Bills
Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
The Bills absolutely need to address their receiving core in this draft. They start with the speedy Troy Franklin at No. 28. Troy Franklin is really interesting to mock, as I can easily see him falling as late as the third round. In this case, the Bills fall in love as they will likely notice the Stefon Diggs similarities on tape. Franklin needs to work on his inconsistent hands, but he has crazy upside in his game.
Pick No. 29 Detroit Lions
Max Melton, CB, Rutgers
This pick would surprise a lot of fans and media, But I’m a firm believer that Melton will be a first round pick. His ability to play in man, zone and press coverage will make teams fall in love with him — I have the Lions being one of those teams. Detroit has made some surprise picks and they’ve worked out. This pick will be no different.
Pick No. 30 Las Vegas Raiders (Trade with Ravens)
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
The Raiders get aggressive and get their guy in Michael Penix Jr at No. 30. In the trade, the Ravens received the No. 44 and 77 picks on top of a 2025 third-round pick for No. 30. Penix is a guy the Raiders have been linked to, and I believe that there is a small chance they take him with their No. 13l pick. Although in this scenario, they get a tackle and their quarterback in the late first.
Pick No. 31 San Francisco 49ers
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Amarius Mims slips through the cracks in this mock and the 49ers will take advantage with the No. 31 pick. Mims is equipped with elite size and length which he carries surprisingly well. He has limited reps and will be a project. But Shanahan will likely view him as a great replacement down the line for future hall-of-famer Trent Williams.
Pick No. 32 Kansas City Chiefs
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Chiefs find their L'Jarius Sneed replacement with the last pick in the first round. McKinstry is a rock-solid corner that can be effective in man and zone. McKinstry can go much higher than this, but here he falls right into Steve Spagnoulo’s lap. McKinstry is a relatively safe prospect as he has a lot of reps against elite competition and has been consistently productive. The Chiefs get a very balanced corner at No. 32.